Power Shift Signals Change Of Guard At Top Of Premiership
ByIf ever there was a case of ’The Usual Suspects being expected to do what is routine, then you have to say that the top 4 positions of the EPL table would correct itself every year.
The ’Big 4’ in England have hitherto executed their ruthless rendition of ’the rich get richer and the poor on the other side of the tracks watch and wish it was them’.
In fact, apart from Manchester United’s 11 Premiership haul’s, Arsenal’s 3 titles, and Chelsea’s 2 titles, Blackburn are the only club in the EPL to have won the Premiership.
Even then, you could say that Jack Walker did for Blackburn Rovers, what Roman Abramovich did for Chelsea, and ”bought” the title by throwing 50 pound notes at it.
In recent times, so much emphasis has been put on the ’top 4’. It’s become the elusive holy grail of English football and achieving a top 4 finish is even hailed more than winning domestic trophies like the FA cup and league cup.
The glamour and razzmatazz of playing amongst the elite in Europe and the financial rewards offered have heightened the perceived importance of finishing in the 4 Champions league places that English football is allocated.
Except for the 2005 season when Everton eclipsed their bitter rivals Liverpool to the 4th spot, Champions league football has been a preserve of Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United in recent years.
Even though, Liverpool in that 2005 season were handed a ’get out of jail free card’ by their argument that they had the right to defend the trophy.
As we approach the last few games of the season, some new patterns are emerging signalling a change of guard at the top of the English football high table. Many may argue otherwise, but such arguments in my view are the desperate kicks of a dying horse.
The two biggest casualties of the shift of the power axis are Liverpool and Manchester United. In two very different ways, they are tangible case studies of ’the beginning of the end’ of an era of domination by the two clubs.
Liverpool is in a more perilous state right now from the point of view that the lack of Champions league football next season will be a catalyst for a lengthy spell in the wilderness of mid-table mediocrity.
The performance of the team this season has been questionable at best and the exacerbation of the fans with the fortunes of their team is palpable.
In Manchester United’s case, the loss of Christiano Ronaldo and Carlos Tevez is so painfully obvious , only a rookie disembarking off the milk train at Manchester Piccadilly will argue otherwise. Despite the world record sale of their former Portuguese ace, United weren’t able to afford Tevez who was snapped up by the blue side of Manchester.
Various parties within the club have tried to insult our intelligence by suggesting that Carlos Tevez was not worth the £25m price tag, but it was more to do with the fact that United couldn’t afford him. I mean, how do you let a striker of Tevez’s quality go so that you can get a crocked Michael Owen on the free and try and convince folks that it’s good business.
United and Liverpool are surely heading south, and their performances on the field have shown this all season. Unfortunately for both clubs, assumptions about success on the field have been made when projecting the financial fortunes of the respective clubs.
In yesterday’s article about the financial reality hitting football, Saloner highlighted the difficulty Manchester United find themselves in with falling revenues. Even if you factor in relative success on the pitch, the situation still looks bad.
Raphael Benitez is already screaming for money to rebuild his squad, and many observers also note that United need major surgery as it’s time to call curtains for the senior citizens like Ryan Giggs, Paul Scholes, and Gary Neville.
Here is the thing though. The business of football has changed, and it’s my view that many observers within football haven’t caught up with this reality.
I’d like to say that it’s misguided optimism on their part, but it’s more to do with collective gross incompetence within the football establishment. It’s the sort of incompetence that blinds them from realising that the days of ’big money football’ are all gone.
There are no billionaires from Russia waiting to burn their oil dollars; or no Sheikh’s from the middle east looking for a play toy. The constant hope that clubs will be ’rescued’ by a sugar daddy of sorts is a lottery gamble that is farfetched from reality.
Liverpool have tried to invite investment and have failed miserably. In truth, Liverpool needed more of a marriage counsellor than they needed a high net worth investor; Gillett and Hicks were constantly bitching at each other it’s hard to see who would have been interested in throwing their money in there.
Liverpool have ended up appointing an independent chairman who happens to hold a season ticket in the Matthew Harding stand at Stamford Bridge. But it’s that sort of desperation for credibility that forces them to have someone at the helm who can give Liverpool the respectability to invite investors in.
Manchester City are an anomaly; a freak show if you will. Their owners, the Abu Dhabi Investment Corporation have the luxury of printing their own money from the mint attached to the back of their office complex.
The problem there is for Liverpool and United (less so for Chelsea and for Arsenal) is that once City get into the Champions league, they won’t let go. They’ll be like a bull dog that refuses to let go of your ass once it bites.
They have the money to throw at football mercenaries, and I even fear for Roberto Mancini who in the grand scheme of things, will be left high and dry as they appoint a ’Hollywood’ name as manager.
Jose Mourinho already submitted his CV live on a pre-match interview a week ago, and I think we can conclude that it was noted, if not accepted. The Sheikh’s of Middle Eastlands are going to throw an obscene amount of money to cement their position.
A lot of people think that Abu Dhabi Investment Corporation’s interest in Manchester City has to do with football. I submit to you that it has very little to do with football, and more to do with marketing Abu Dhabi as a country to the rest of the world.
Gulf states are making a concerted effort to put themselves on the world map, and the Emirates and Qatar have not been shy at implementing audacious programmes to brand themselves around the world as they seek the attention of the world.
Call it an exercise in vanity, but taking a club out of obscurity into the highest echelons of football is a pretty straight forward loss leader for them if there was ever one. It’s almost like the cost of the Manchester City project is irrelevant; they can print the money anyway.
More people around the world are talking about this Gulf state called Abu Dhabi than they are about Manchester City.
As for Chelsea, it really depends on the intentions of their one benefactor, and any way you look at this one, it’s hard to see how sustainable it is. Will Abramovich have the stomach to ’buy’ a new squad to replace his senior citizens? They say Chelsea has a good academy, but it’s a long stretch to see any of their academy products breaking into the first team.
Arsenal on the other hand have the best of both worlds. A manageable financial structure leading towards a debt free scenario as the stadium mortgage is paid off; and on the other hand, a stable management structure that works well to move the team in the right direction.
considering the meltdown that’s happening and its impact on United and Liverpool, Arsenal are well placed to ride this storm, even if more adversity comes our way.
There’s a lot of hysteria about Lady Nina Bracewell-Smith’s decision to sell her shares, and many people have jumped on the band wagon.
For one, I don’t think Usmanov has a chance and any bid by him will be blocked by Danny Fiszman and Stan Kroenke.
My sense is that Stan Kroenke loves the way Arsenal is run and believes it’s a good investment; but I think he’s ambivalent towards buying Arsenal outright if there is resistance to a takeover.
Arsene Wenger’s likely decision to leave Arsenal if there’s a pissing contest to take over Arsenal is a huge factor and I don’t see the board risking that.
Lady Nina has appointed an investment bank to seek an outside buyer and I don’t think Blackstone have any intention of selling either to Usmanov or Kroenke, so it’s likely to be an outsider.
The most likely result is that the ownership structure stays the same with the protagonists changing, and we can carry on with the business of cementing our place at the top of European football.
Whatever happens to Arsenal’s ownership though, there is clearly a change of guard at the top of English football.
Stone Cold Arsenal is looking for new writers. If you have the passion and fire for Arsenal, and you feel you want to share your thoughts, your passion and your emotions with the thousands who read this blog daily, visit our Write For Us page to find out more.
Tue 13th September 2011; 19:45, Dortmund
Very good article, Darius. Unfortunately for our Premier League, the people running our football are too slow on the uptake of the global direction of the game. More dastard is the fact that our so called experts, referees and our media do not even fully understand the rules & their interpretations. They base most of their opinions on how they ‘used to play’. Times have moved on so much that they are mostly left at the shores of their own mediocrity. Most dangerous to English football is the complete lack of financial savvy amongst the iZombies and Football ruling bodies; as well as their unwillingness to learn or change.
as for the Arsenal, I do hope that the air of ‘take, or no take, overs’ clears up very quickly. We do not need this clouding or muddying things up for us. I hope that the fear of loosing the manager, as well as the potential loss of our much maligned, but most adulating, stability, keep everyone concern on a leash.
Darius,
Over the past decade, football, like the rest of the global economy, was subject to a boom inflated by delusional expectations backed by cheap money.
Speculators gambled on healthy growth rates extending uninterrupted far into the future and made over optimistic bets with regard to all aspects of the economy. The rash of acquisitions in football is symptomatic of this behaviour.
Reality, inevitably, has caught up with the rest of the economy and is beginning to rear its ugly head up in football too. We, I sadly think, have only seen the prelude to the denouement yet. The worst, I’m afraid, is yet to come.
Unless the economy miraculously and dramatically improves over the next year, and that’s extremely unlikely in my view, football is going to be subject to a searching reality check that’ll show up the men from the boys with regards to management and prudence.
I wish it had never come to this, but the game will be the better for the cleansing.
I do foresee a time in the next year or 18 months when the less patient Arsenal fans are going to be thanking their lucky stars at our immunity to the troubles. You can hold me to that prediction.
Kronke etc can,t stop Usmanov if he decides to buy they don,t have enough money how does a man with 1B stop a man with 5Billion
I certainly will saloner. It gives me a warm feeling.
Solaner, I certainly will hold you to it and I say Amen to it as well.