Guest Post: Arsenal – At A Critical Crossroads?
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In today’s post, Saloner, a regular contributor on Stone Cold Arsenal shares his thoughts about the Gunners’ elusive road to success.
He feels that one way lies a realistic attempt at honours; the other way lies the spectre of fan revolt. The choice, of course, contingent on the players’ efforts over the remainder of the season. What do you think?
This guest post, a response to Darius’s kind invitation allowing me a column on this excellent blog, is the first in what I hope will be a long, educative and entertaining exchange with its readers.
Writing in the aftermath of the Liverpool game, I’ve decided to commence with a summation of the zeitgeist as I see it.
Being six points behind the league leaders, with arguably a relatively kinder run of games going forward, is heartening. The coming run of games will be a litmus test of the team’s character.
The Gunners have been the object of contempt from their rivals, the press, and sections of their own fan base; yet, given effort and luck, they have the chance to set the record straight by launching a serious assault on the title.
One, I imagine, can scarcely hope for greater motivation. This isn’t unfamiliar terrain either: Arsenal clawed 11 points back after the loss to Chelsea earlier in the season.
That brings me to my biggest frustration with regard to this team – inconsistency.
Through every season in the course of recent development, Arsenal put together neat little unbeaten runs, most crucially when chasing down and then over taking Villa for the fourth spot last season. They have also undone all that good work with numerous abject performances.
Perhaps putting together a determined run in a hunt for the title, regardless of outcome, is just the psychological boost the Gunners need to free themselves of this malaise. We’ll see.
Taking the longer perspective, there are issues about Arsenal that hearten and worry me in equal measure.
It is wonderful that in a time of global economic troubles, we are a business that is in the black; more so as we’ve moved to a new stadium as good as, if not better, than any in the business.
Over the same period, we have also rebuilt a team from scratch while ensuring crucial Champions’ League revenues every season. That’s to juggle three balls, a fact not sufficiently appreciated by those already calling curtains on Wenger’s time.
Yes, we last won a trophy in 2005. The fact that we can yet stretch the title chase down to the wire this season, without needing a benefactor to “convert debt to equity” (please consider what that implies), or requiring fresh bond issues on the back of mortgaged stadia, to juggle our debts, is commendable.
There’s one thing, though, that worries me about our current situation – the time yet allowed to see this Wenger project through to completion.
The biggest determinant of that, in my view, is financial. The investment in our stadium, and by extension our brand, is a bet on one thing: The ability to sell seats, TV programming, and merchandise, without resorting to discounting.
Arsenal aims to achieve this financial balance by offering football that not only makes for a great spectacle, but is also contending for honours both domestic and European. A season without Champions’ League funds might not be a disaster.
However, given the increasing number of credible contenders, quite a few not constrained by the need to balance books, once we fail to qualify, getting back into the Champions League might not be all that easy.
Every season without European action definitely means financial strain, compounded by the fact that the marginal “customer” might well not be willing to turn up forcing us to discount our offerings even further. There’s every risk that this will be a negative spiral.
A related issue is player morale: With every season that passes by without honours, the temptation for our most valuable players to consider other options becomes the stronger. It isn’t a question of just a player’s personal loyalty; it is a question of the motivation of “advisors”, agents, and the like, encouraged by “enquiries” from other clubs, having more ammunition to sway a player’s mind.
It’ll be tragic to lose players at this stage of the team’s progress. Life won’t end; but it will, at least in the case of the critical players, be a blow.
Much is made of the long waiting list for season tickets, among other things. But I believe that the loyal support which you can count on to turn up isn’t remotely sufficient to support the financial requirements of a club with our ambitions.
I’m willing to wager that over the past couple of seasons, those waiting lists have grown shorter in proportion to increasing disillusionment, right or wrong, about the team’s progress.
Football today, is a spectacle, and a substantial part of the revenues, perforce, arise from “customers” (as described last week by Darius) happy only to bask in the glory of success. It is tempting to wish that they take their custom elsewhere, but the financial impact might well be crippling, if not fatal.
Staying in the Premier League will not be the problem; jostling for space at the top of the table will certainly be.
Do note that these worries are contingent on football remaining detached from financial realities for some time to come. I do think that sooner, rather than later, painful reality will prick the bubble and bring club management, especially the benefactor backed ones, back to earth.
Until such time, one is constrained to deal with the situation without hopefully being consumed by the recklessness of it all; something Arsenal has admirably managed to do so far.
Coming to the team itself, the pace of our defensive development, both psychological and tactical, has been far too slow for my taste. It is the more disappointing aspect as barring Almunia, we have staffed our first choice defence very well.
I’m tempted to say, and often do, that Wenger doesn’t drill this aspect of the game enough. But that’s just opinion.
Given that Eboue, Toure, Senderos and Flamini could go a good 1000 minutes unbreached in the 2006 Champions’ league campaign; given the tidy spells of unbeaten runs we’ve put together in patches every season since that 2006 campaign; and given that the first choice back four today are man for man, at least as good, if not better than that 2006 Champions league line up, we should, given a little application, be doing much better.
I think it is a question of instilling the responsibility to defend, from right up top, into the entire team. I’d be surprised, especially after the disappointments of this season to date, if Wenger hasn’t already taken a hard look at the issue. I back him to sort things out.
As for buying players, a first choice goalkeeper is a must, if only to buy time for the development of Fabianski, Mannone and Szczesny. In my view, Almunia doesn’t cut it. I’m not even hoping for the Buffons of this world; just a steadier hand on average, a la the Jaaskelainen’s of this world, will do.
Much has been made about the need for a proper centre forward to cover for Van Persie. That’s a trickier question. Injuries have wrecked havoc with Eduardo and Bendtner. Given we have Walcott and Vela as understudies, the risk of over staffing that part of the team is significant.
What’s the answer? I don’t know and I’m glad I don’t have to figure it out. Chamakh on a free might well prove tempting, even given the wage bill.
Given Djourou’s unfortunate injury record, it would be prudent to have another centre half to back the first choice pair up. Depending on a sustained run from either Campbell or Sylvester isn’t prudent in my opinion.
Gallas and Vermaelen remaining available, virtually always, has been one of the blessings of this season. I don’t want to further tempt fate on that front.
All of these make the remainder of this season crucial in very many respects. Pull through it well, and Arsenal will buy time. Fail and I think a general clamour will arise forcing action on a lot of fronts starting with Wenger’s position at the club.
Related Articles:
- Does The EPL Destination Signal The Crossroads For Arsenal?
- Arsenal: Room For Optimism And Concern In Equal Measure
- Guest Post: Coaches, Players And Teams – Weak And Strong
- Have Arsenal Supporters Lost The Plot?
- Power Shift Signals Change Of Guard At Top Of Premiership
Tue 13th September 2011; 19:45, Dortmund
A worthy & thoughtful post, Saloner, thank you.
Champions often have to go on a run of 10/+ wins in the 2nd half of the season, whilst starting that sequence in touching distance. I believe, as you do, that we have that opportunity.
Success like that is often as much about momentum as anything else. We have enough talent, in my opinion, but can we get the confidence?
Confidence is certainly the key for Almunia. He has lost some this season but at his best is a competent ‘keeper, certainly in comparison with the recent performances by Jaaskelainen against us.
We shall see.
Does not doing it put us at a critical crossroads?
I don’t think so, as I am convinced that a large enough element of the fan base have the common sense to see that winning silverware is not the “be all or end all”. Arsenal are almost always selling out the ground (even if some don’t always go) & people want to watch Arsenal because it is very rare for them not to entertain, even if they are the victims of an underdog.
If all you want is silverware then you are almost always going to be disappointed. The 2 things to win these days are the EPL & the CL & don’t forget Chelsea, with all that they have spent, have not won the former in the last 3 seasons, whilst they (as we) have never lifted the latter. The FA & Carling Cups are sadly now poor consolations.
Tottenham are either going through a charade or are serious about building a new stadium. They have no recent significant success but they must still be confident of getting the punters in. If they can there is no reason why we shouldn’t carry on increasing the fan base.
I believe that the really critical issue will be to do with any change of ownership, producing an entirely different identity to the club.
If Wenger’s position is forced to change abruptly, all the efforts of the past few years will go to waste. A ripple effect of cataclysmic proportions will be unleashed. Certain players will no longer feel the need to stay and be loyal to Arsenal. We will end up buying players who will come to Arsenal just as either stepping stone or just for money. Even the board may be forced to shell out money we cannot afford, ‘Arry style. We will have no other choice but to play Chelsea style of football, not aesthetically pleasing, but may win some trophies now and then (Even Chelsea have not won the league in 2 years after winning just 2 previously; a poor return for the over £700 M spent by the owner). We could be doing a lot worse. You know what comes next, don’t you? The same argitators who want Wenger to go, will then abandon Arsenal and laugh at the club to for no longer having the ability to play entertaining football. They will claim that we tried to be like Barcelona and failed miserably.
Why can’t Arsenal supporters get it? The people who started this furore are not Arsenal fans. The thick ones amongst us bought into the nonsense and helped the perpetrators to spread their destructive gospel.
No! We must follow the words of Rudyard Kipling in his poem
” If
If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you;
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too:
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or, being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or being hated don’t give way to hating,
And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise; ”
We must keep our resolve to see it through; we must.
Will be back later to chip in – but just wanted to mention that the depth you folks unleash up in here sometimes surprises me.
We can forget transfers, finance, ticket sales for a while now. The future of the club is on the pitch in the next 3/4 months.
We have a favourable run in, but the top 3 will be favoured home and away against every side beneath them, so the margin for error with the ground to make up is small. Really, we will need a string of victories, this will be the test of our team.
Of the 12 left we have dropped points against 5 of the teams already – all away. This may be the true test for us now. Can we go away and show enough solidity, fight, and creativity under presssure, then be clinical with the chances.
If we win the league – it is in our hands really – and, or, Europe then the club will be entering an excellent period. We have youth on the pitch and so much talent that a first trophy would settle everything else whilst it takes off. Supporters would back the players, the manager would stay on longer, the players will want to continue to try and write some truly special history.
We have put ourselves in a position where the big prizes are all to play for. (Glad not to have played shitty on the weekend then have a replay to look forward to now)
Like every team, we may lead a bit of luck, but the lads have shown they have the spirit and we are due some luck now. After that there will be no stopping us.
Just to reiterate again – excellent quality in both the post and the responses and it’s much appreciated.
My two cents.
I think that we have to move away from the undue pressure that is artificially being put on the club. By pressure – I mean the perception that not winning a trophy this time round means a dooms day scenario.
The Arsenal board will never throw out the baby, the bath water and the entire bathroom down Holloway road for the sake of pacifying a section of supporters. This is one board that understands how to get on with their business while sidestepping emotion.
Secondly, the way to know for sure that Wenger is not going anywhere in the near future is by looking at the fact that since May 2009, at least 16 current players have signed long term contracts (18 if you count Rosicky and Gallas’s imminent contract). I submit to you that the first question each of those players would have asked is whether Wenger is committed to staying at the club. The answer seems emphatic.
The press will generate a lot of hoggwash as we come into the summer about Wenger’s conttract ending in 2011 – and for them, it’s fodder to fill the air waves and the news columns. From a business point of view, there’s absolutely no reason to renew Wenger’s contract at this point in time. There’s no danger that both parties will come to an immpasse when the time comes for renewal and there’s no danger that the board will be shy in offering a new contract.
I think that Arsenal fans need to prepare themselves this summer for a barrage of “Wenger is leaving, Cesc and Arshavin are leaving, Arsenal is being taken over” and any other story that will sell papers and pay bills.
The sensationalism that comes with such stories is what in my view causes some of the artificial pressure. This coupled with what is a key issue for most of the dispondent fans – the fact that they find it difficult to face the humiliation of explaining themselves (yet again) to their Chelsea and Manure colleagues.
If football were all about bragging rights then maybe you can say yes.
But I think the team has reached the critical mass level where dismantling the project is not an option. Well it is – but it’s a chopping your nose off to spite your face kind of option.
I believe the best signing Arsenal made in 2009 was Ivan Gazidis. The new CEO is a class act and if you take a reflective view of the distance Arsenal has travelled through 2009 in a lot of its operational aspects, then you’ll realise that Gazidis was more important a signing than any of the recent players Arsenal acquired.
I say this because I feel Gazidis has the diplomacy and balance to apply acceptable pressure to the situation while being absolutely supportive and a tag team partner for Wenger. The kind of sounding board and reality check that Wenger might need to work through the difficult last mile.
I believe Gazidis has the ability to tell anyone to go to hell in such a way that they look forward to the trip. It’s a class act of a skill that’s needed to lead and support Arsenal through this precarious patch where unwaivering courage and determoination against pockets of adversity is needed to see the project through.
On the pitch – I have no doubt that the players know what time it is. You can see they want to win though like me, I’m sure they’re baffled at how they sometimes capitulate following the loss of discipline.
Wenger has reined in the attacking instincts of this team most notably last season when we were leaking profusely by November. The team knuckled down and put together a 21 game unbeaten run.
It’s a shame this can’t be balanced with our attacking instincts – but truth be told, our propensity to go for total football and to chase the goals puts us at higher risk than normal – and we haven’t got side B to this soundtrack sown up yet.
Either way, I think that fighting against all this adversity is the best experience this team will ever get – with everyone doubting them and them having to dig deep into their character to fight back – it’s experience that you’ll never be able to buy anywhere, even if you had the money.
nd that’s one reason I love Arsenal.
Flint, LRV, arsenehollis and Darius:thank you for the thoughtful responses.
To elaborate a bit: My worries are rooted in a feeling I’ve nursed awhile now: Arsenal, around the beginning of this decade, became an “in fashion” club globally. It became chic to support a team managed by a polyglot frenchman that not only was a world in miniature but also subscribed to stylish football. A large part of our pricing power and ability to fill this new stadium, at top dollar prices, I worry, is rooted in that fashionability.
Nothing wrong, except for two bits of bad luck: We’re rebuilding a team, necessarily a process of growth and pain, precisely when the Premier League has become Las Vegas. With such a terribly uneven playing field, the question is wether we can satisfy these fashionistas quick enough to retain their business, and then charge them 5 star rates for the privilege? Fashion, after all, to quote the immortal Coco Chanel, “is that which goes out of fashion”.
It isn’t just a question of winning or losing either. Come the business end of each season, if we are right there in the mix, domestically and in Europe, till such time as financial reality reasserts itself, we have a good chance of keeping the tills ringing.
Mind you, I find this whole business distasteful. But we are a business, and we have expanded on the premise of being able to convince a good lot of marginal customers to pay top dollar to follow us, and we have to cut our cloth accordingly, without getting caught up in the mania. This is something Arsene has pulled off remarkably well. The unwillingness of a good section of the crowd to put up with pain, even on the evidence of development, and even in the knowledge of the distorted playing field is execrable. What price loyalty?
But till such time as reality bites the league – and given global economic circumstances, I can hear it sharpening its claws, while digesting Portsmouth- we’ll have to put up with this I imagine.
Tottenham come at this from another end: It’s been a long time since they were “fashionable”. They have only one thing to fear: themselves. And I’m not joking either. I regard them as poorly run for the simple reason that they spend as if they are fashionable, when the only interest in them is of the loyal and long suffering. They’ve put together a tolerable season under Redknapp, but Redknapp himself, in my eyes, is a sprinter and not a marathoner. Building a club and culture requires the latter breed. Redknapp will “wheel and deal” and throw together a few good shows now and again, but I’d not bet, given the trail he’s left behind, on him worrying about sustainability and the long term. The ultimate irony in all this is that Tottenham is run by an accountant. Whatever….
As usual, one of the very few places one (an Arsenal fan) can get the real deal and a reality check if (god forbid) their love and support for the club is wavering. So, thank you Darius, Saloner, LRV and others that post here.
As rightly pointed by LRV, for the 700 mil, all Chelski have to show is a couple of league titles, a F.A Cup and a CL final appearance. Which isn’t much. 700 mil could buy you… (fill blank here).
Where as we have a brand spanking (the best) new stadium and a whole new squad while keeping the books in order. We haven’t had a sugar daddy (thank god!!) who can pull out anytime he likes if he thinks he’s loosing too much $$.
We may not win today, but the future looks good. An old cliché if you like…sometimes you need to loose a battle to win a war.
I trophy this season will do nicely (for me personally) to reward Wenger for his hard work and perseverance. Hey, he didn’t have to spearhead our move to the Emirates, he didn’t have to rebuild the squad and he could have taken a job somewhere else if he wanted. But, he’s stayed, he’s looked after the Arsenal as if it was his baby (and to be honest it is).
All he needs now is our support, which blogs like yours Darius encourage.
Darius – I agree that there will not be any doomsday scenario if we fail to land a trophy, but I think that i sseeing things from an overly pessimistic starting point.
We should not be concerned at present with avoiding catastrophe, but rather with writing history.
We can start here, in the next few months, to build upon the foundations laid by Wenger since we moved home. The aim of all clubs is to win trophies, sane ones realise it is a sweet but rare thing, but this can be our moment. I can’t believe that Wenger has in mind a single league title with this group, they are too good too soon for that, but this can be the first.
If we fail now, at worst we are a side who for several years, even if baren of silver, have been one of Europe’s top 8. we have a stunning new stadium. State of the art training ground. An excellent board, business model, and youth set-up all the envy of world football. We have a superb team, a deep squad, a shrewd manager. Even if we sell players, whilst a step back, it clearly would not be a Leeds style plummet.
However, we should be more interested in what happens if we can win now. If we grind out the 10/11 wins, maybe win some with a flourish to, that will get us teh league title. From here we can build, continue to bring through the youth, and go on to win much more for many years.
This year has seen the emergence of Song, Diaby, and Bendtner as crucial players. Plus we have Eduardo, Rosicky both back. Next year, just from within, we will get Ramsey, Djourou, Wilshere pushing for inclusion. Then there is Gibbs, Walcott, Denilson, Vela all of whom are yet to find their best form this year, but may progress. Add Eastmond, JET, Merida maybe, Bartley and teh future is bright. Plus we have kept our powder dry and will have money to spend in the summer. Now if we just win this league, we will be in a position of immense stregth to go on and defend it.
“at worst we are a side who for several years, even if baren of silver, have been one of Europe’s top 8 …………”
Exactly arsenehollis- great stuff.
Saloner
I the “fashionability” aspect is relevant to football in general as well as other full stadium events. There is an element in any crowd, who just go to be there & hope to be seen there.
However these people get the thrill off the great majority, who are there because they are committed, even if not always supportive.
I don’t see much change in that, at the Emirates, certainly in the immediate future. It may be only my perspective but with football supporters there is always tomorrow.
The problem, of filling the stadium, could arise if we have a couple of seasons in the proper doldrums, similar to the last years of Terry Neil & George Graham, accompanied by the sterile football of those years. Then the downward spiral can become uncontrollable.
AW cannot go on for ever but the club is more resourceful these days & seemingly in much better financial shape than all but the “doped” competition.
That brings me back to the ownership issues. If there are more Chelseas & Man Cities or if we joined them, then maybe Barnet or Stevenage Borough become more worthy of my attention. I hope that is something I don’t have to worry about.
For the moment for the reasons so eloquently put by arsenehollis we are “pigs in shite” with the prospect of the shite tasting sweeter & sweeter in the coming years.
The ant-support & “financial doping” is our biggest danger.
Arsenehollis and Flint.
C’mon, let’s stop being shy about Arsenal and it’s wealth and power.
According to Forbes magazine (arguably the definiteve source of rich lists), Arsenal is the 3rd most powerful and wealthiest football club after Manchester United and Real Madrid.
http://www.forbes.com/2009/04/08/valuable-soccer-teams-business-sportsmoney-soccer-values-09-soccer_land.html
We don’t have to be ashamed of that.